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In "Where Should Liquidity be Injected during a Financial Crisis?

" Ricardo Reis formalizes the notion of a liquidity shortage and then studies the tactical aspects of monetary policy when such a shortage arises.

Both measures plunged in late 2008 as the financial crisis took hold.Real GDP began to grow in the summer of 2009 but employment continued to decline.The percentage drop in employment in the current recession was the largest since the government began the collection of the data in 1939, although not nearly as large as the decline in the Great Depression in 1929 to 1933, according to annual data from earlier sources.As I write, many eyes are on the program's Business Cycle Dating Committee, which I also chair, as evidence grows that the recession that began in December 2007 may have come to an end recently or is about to come to an end.The following graph shows the two main indicators the committee considers in deciding on the dates of turning points in economic activity, real GDP and payroll employment: Figure Both measures are stated as indexes that reached 1.00 in December 2007, the month determined to be the peak of the business cycle by the committee on November 28, 2008.

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